Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.451564 5.281421 6.201475 7.294113 8.553092 9.954917 11.630516
2025-05-11 3.123973 4.211891 5.554519 7.318830 9.559894 12.293814 15.861347
2025-05-18 2.217140 3.347583 4.879294 7.072929 10.093929 14.062273 19.614015
2025-05-25 1.601378 2.679960 4.268969 6.722971 10.345372 15.409481 22.914531
2025-06-01 1.243608 2.282057 3.929295 6.645067 10.897689 17.161006 26.895537
2025-06-08 0.984046 1.968080 3.639178 6.562629 11.388280 18.829392 30.883150
2025-06-15 0.859923 1.852509 3.639152 6.924556 12.590031 21.660941 36.856405
2025-06-22 0.716236 1.663555 3.471095 6.962827 13.246586 23.679475 41.727093
2025-06-29 0.597422 1.493048 3.300635 6.959852 13.814200 25.585059 46.559122
2025-07-06 0.499368 1.340830 3.134047 6.930532 14.316741 27.408542 51.387564
2025-07-13 0.472443 1.342167 3.275828 7.513431 15.999741 31.405784 60.213762
2025-07-20 0.420167 1.269829 3.247885 7.746794 17.038602 34.339904 67.404577
2025-07-27 0.376309 1.210762 3.245175 8.045958 18.266595 37.774091 75.851910
2025-08-03 0.319566 1.102397 3.110504 8.043424 18.895068 40.163510 82.624710
2025-08-10 0.258254 0.962085 2.870506 7.766042 18.918692 41.399627 87.358450
2025-08-17 0.203925 0.823914 2.605062 7.382512 18.661024 42.050217 91.018026
2025-08-24 0.171014 0.743051 2.472726 7.296710 19.042155 44.001230 97.329638
2025-08-31 0.143484 0.670616 2.347496 7.206761 19.398676 45.924048 103.717035
2025-09-07 0.134006 0.661605 2.404512 7.599580 20.923237 50.411330 115.573598
2025-09-14 0.116353 0.614133 2.335158 7.641065 21.608444 53.152748 124.027107
2025-09-21 0.100220 0.566438 2.254449 7.637817 22.181827 55.692537 132.228335
2025-09-28 0.085884 0.520450 2.168714 7.605986 22.678172 58.096975 140.299607
2025-10-05 0.085140 0.537762 2.302124 8.238447 24.941561 64.642679 157.640028